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Modelling the spread dynamics of COVID-19 in West Africa

COVID-19 is a pandemic caused by the SARS-VOC-2 virus first identified in China in December 2019. The disease has spread rapidly around the world causing as of August 2020 about 19, 22,478,271 confirmed cases including 787,936 deaths. Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly West Africa remains one of the regions apparently least affected. In the absence of treatment to cure the disease, current measures remain essentially non-pharmaceutical measures. At the same time, current efforts are mainly directed towards the introduction of a vaccine. In order to inform public health decision-making, several research teams around the world have developed mathematical and/or statistical models to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 and the impacts of barrier measures on the spread of the disease. In Benin, the Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’EstimationsForestières (www.labef-uac.org) of the Faculty of Agronomic Sciences of the University of Abomey-Calavi has undertaken a series of studies on modelling the dynamics of COVID-19 in West Africa.

This seminar is intended to provide an opportunity to exchange views on these studies. It is aligned within the framework of scientific animation as a contribution of researchers in the search for adequate solutions for a good management of the COVID-19 pandemic in West Africa.

  • Language of the seminar: French
  • Date: Tuesday, September 8, 2020
  • Location: Etisalat Amphitheatre (or other appropriate amphitheatre)
  • Duration of the seminar: 3 hours
  • Number of communications: 5
  • President of the organizing committee: Pr Romain GLELE KAKAÏ (LABEF/FSA/UAC)
  • President of the Scientific Committee: Pr Léonard TODJIHOUNDE (IMSP/UAC)
  • Honorary President: Pr Mahouton Norbert HOUNKONNOU (CIPMA/UAC, ANSALB)
  • Observation: Strict observation to physical distance and mask wearing measures.

activities schedule

HoraireActivités
9h00 – 9h10Allocution du Président du comité d’organisation (Pr Romain Glèlè Kakaï)
9h10-9h20Allocution du Président du comité scientifique (Pr Léonard Todjihounde)
9h20-9h30Allocution du Président de l’ANSALB 
(Pr Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou)
9h30-9h45Allocution du Recteur de l’UAC 
(Pr Maxime da CRUZ)
9h45-10h00Sur l’utilisation des modèles de croissance pour prédire la dynamique d’une épidémie avec application aux données de COVID-19 (Tovissode et al. 2020)
Communicateur: Frédéric Tovissode (Doctorant)
10h00-10h15Inférence sur la dynamique d’une épidémie par utilisation d’un mélange de modèles de croissance : application à la propagation de la COVID en Afrique de l’Ouest (Tovissode et al. 2020) 
Communicateur : Dr Jonas Doumatè 
10h15-10h30Utilisation du modèle SEIR modifié pour prédire la dynamique de la COVID-19 face aux mesures de contrôle en Afrique de l’Ouest (Taboe et al. 2020)
Communicateur : Beaugard Taboe (Doctorant)
10h30-10h45Prédiction de la dynamique à long terme de la COVID-19 dans les pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest (Honfo et al. 2020)
Communicateur : Dr Sewanou Honfo
10h45-11h00Sur la fiabilité des prédictions sur la dynamique de la COVID-19: une analyse critique des méthodes de modélisations utilisées (Gnanvi et al. 2020).
Communicateur : Dr Valère Salako
11h00-12h00Discussion

PS: Participation is on request to Email :contact.labef@gmail.com
or Whatsapp + 229 96 17 27 29

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